At the start of 2010, the global economy finds itself in a period of recovery. However, the rebound is still being bolstered by extremely expansive monetary policies with low interest rates and extensive government initiatives. For this reason, the upward trend cannot yet be said to be self-sustaining and it is possible that the economic recovery could soon lose momentum. Nevertheless, economic growth forecasts are cautiously optimistic. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicting an increase of 3.9% in global economic output in 2010. Against this backdrop, global trade can be expected to see moderate expansion (IMF: 5.8%, OECD: 6.0%).
|A.67 Global economy: growth forecasts|
|Global trade volume||–12.3||5.8|
|Real gross domestic product|
|Central and Eastern Europe||–4.3||2.0|
|Former CIS countries||–7.5||3.8|
|Emerging markets in Asia||6.5||8.4|
|Latin America and the Caribbean||–2.3||3.7|
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) world economic outlook, October 2009, update January 2010.
In the United States, the economy should recover but private consumption is likely to remain weak. Forecasts call for solid GDP growth overall (IMF: 2.7%, OECD: 2.5%, Postbank Research: 2.3%).
The Japanese economy is expected to experience a sharp growth in exports as it benefits from the upswing in global trade. The country should again register solid GDP growth (IMF: 1.7%, OECD: 1.8%, Postbank Research: 2.0%). In China, growth will continue to accelerate but will not fully reach the record levels of past years (IMF: 10.0%).
The euro zone is thought to be on the road to recovery, with the economy stimulated by exports and gross fixed capital formation. However, the forces driving the economy could lose momentum if government economic initiatives are scaled back. Growth is forecasted to remain low (ECB: 0.8%, Postbank Research: 1.7%).