Business development expectations

At the start of 2010, the moderate recovery trend seen in the second half of 2009 continued. For planning and budgeting purposes, we have figured in a modest recovery in overall trade volumes in 2010. However, uncertainty remains with regard to the extent and durability of this recovery.

Against this backdrop, we expect full-year consolidated EBIT before non-recurring items to reach €1.6 billion to €1.9 billion in 2010. The MAIL division is likely to make up around €1.0 billion to €1.2 billion of this. Compared with the previous year, we expect a strong improvement in earnings to between €1.0 billion and €1.1 billion in the DHL divisions. The Corporate Center/Other segment should come in just below the prior year with a loss of around €0.4 billion. Given that 2009 saw high non-recurring expenses for restructuring the express business, full-year 2010 is likely to see a solid improvement in consolidated EBIT.

We will maintain our conservative financial policy in 2010, raising our capital expenditure to approximately €1.4 billion after having reduced it in 2009 to just under €1.2 billion. Following our corporate strategy, we are focusing on organic growth. We anticipate only a few small acquisitions in 2010 as in the previous year. Planned restructuring measures taken in the previous year on the order of €1 billion will reduce operating cash flow in 2010. Consolidated net profit is expected to continue to improve in 2010 in line with our operating business.

Provided that the global economy continues to recover, the positive trend in our earnings that we are anticipating for 2010 is likely to continue into 2011. The cost reduction measures initiated in the MAIL division are expected to stabilise EBIT even if mail volumes continue to lose out to electronic means of communication. We expect EBIT to improve in the DHL divisions as volumes continue to recover.

Starting in 2010, the mark-to-market measurement now required in accordance with IFRS for all financial instruments associated with the Postbank transaction results in a positive – albeit non-cash – effect on net finance cost/net financial income. As the year progresses, this effect – as already in the previous year for some of these instruments – will be reviewed and, if necessary, adjusted at the end of each quarter based on the trend in Postbank’s fair value.