Future economic parameters

Global economy: the upswing continues

The global economic upturn is expected to be sustained in 2011, though the economy will be susceptible to setbacks. Uncertainty continues to prevail on the financial markets. Moreover, fiscal impetus is expected to let up in the industrial nations in particular. Growth will therefore most likely fall somewhat below the figures for 2010. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicting an increase of 4.4% in global economic output in 2011. Global trade is also likely to continue rising, albeit with somewhat less momentum than in 2010 (IMF: 7.1%, OECD: 8.3%).

In China, the government is working to keep the economy from overheating. The economy is therefore expected to grow somewhat more slowly (IMF: 9.6%).

In Japan, the economic upturn is likely to weaken perceptibly. Exports will lose momentum based on the slowdown in global trade and it is unlikely that domestic demand will be able to compensate for this deficit. GDP growth is therefore expected to be low (IMF: 1.6%, OECD: 1.7%, Postbank Research: 1.3%).

The economy in the United States will remain divided. Private consumption and investment in machinery and equipment will pick up, whilst no notable stimulus is expected from construction spending or foreign trade. On the whole, GDP growth is expected to be similar to that of the previous year (IMF: 3.0%, OECD: 2.2%, Postbank Research: 2.9%).

In the euro zone, the economy is expected to remain on a slow upwards trajectory. The outlook is positive for private consumption and investment in machinery and equipment. Exports could outpace imports if the global economy sees solid growth and domestic demand rises somewhat. However, total GDP is likely to increase only marginally (ECB: 1.4%, Postbank Research: 1.7%).

The broad basis on which the German economy was resting at the start of 2011 promises a sustained upswing. Exports are expected to continue increasing, as is domestic demand. Gross fixed capital formation is likely to rise again, which will benefit the labour market. Against this backdrop, private consumption should increase sharply. Whilst GDP is forecast to be lower than in 2010, it is still projected to outperform the euro zone as a whole (German Council of Economic Experts: 2.2%, Postbank Research: 2.4%).

The price of crude oil will presumably continue increasing on an annual average. Should the economic upturn be significantly stronger than anticipated, it is even possible that trading prices will rise measurably over the course of the year.

The US Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the key interest rate at its current extremely low level in 2011. The ECB is also likely to leave the key rate at 1% for an extended period and only raise it slightly later in the year, provided the economic recovery continues and the European national debt crisis abates.

Interest rates on the capital markets are likely to experience a slight increase. However, yield spreads are expected to remain very tight, assuming that inflation pressure stays low.