Revenue and earnings forecast

The strong recovery of the global economy in 2010 is expected to remain intact in 2011. We have based our projections on growth rates of 3% to 4%. The international trading volumes relevant for our business are likely to exceed the projected growth of the global economy by a factor of 1.5 to 2. We expect our revenue, especially in the DHL divisions, to increase more or less in line with our forecast medium-term growth rates of 7% to 9% in each of the three divisions.

Against this backdrop, we anticipate that consolidated EBIT for full-year 2011 will reach between €2.2 billion and €2.4 billion. The MAIL division is expected to contribute €1.0 billion to €1.1 billion to this figure. Compared with the previous year, we expect an additional improvement in overall earnings to between €1.6 billion and €1.7 billion in the DHL divisions. This corresponds to an increase of 10% to 17% on the prior-year figure. At around €–0.4 billion, the Corporate Center/Other result should be on a par with the previous year. The restructuring measures decided on and implemented in recent years have been completed for the most part, meaning that future earnings will no longer be impacted by such expenses. For this reason, starting in 2011 we shall no longer report EBIT before non-recurring items as a separate line item.

We plan to maintain our finance policy in 2011 and raise our capital expenditure to no more than €1.6 billion after having increased it to just under €1.3 billion in 2010. Following our corporate strategy, we are focusing on organic growth. We anticipate only a few small acquisitions in 2011, as in the previous year. In 2011, cash flow will be impacted by the restructuring measures resolved in 2009 to a much lesser extent than in the previous year.

Provided that the global economy continues to recover, the positive trend in our earnings that we are anticipating for 2011 is likely to continue into 2012. The cost reduction measures initiated in the MAIL division are expected to stabilise EBIT even if mail volumes continue to lose out to electronic means of communication. We expect EBIT to improve in the DHL divisions at an annual average of 13% to 15% until 2015 as trading volumes continue to recover.

The mark-to-market measurement of certain financial instruments required under IFRSs in connection with the Postbank transaction will be reviewed at the end of each quarter until early 2012, and adjusted if necessary, based on the change in the fair value of Postbank. Any adjustments made will not impact liquidity and will be reported under net finance costs/net financial income. To some extent, the related effects will be negated by offsetting changes in the fair value of the remaining shareholding in Postbank. Consolidated net profit before effects from the measurement of the Postbank instruments is expected to continue to improve in 2011 in line with our operating business.