Report on expected developments

Debt crisis in the euro zone threatens global upturn

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is now predicting an increase of 4.6% in global economic output in 2010. For global trade, the IMF is forecasting growth of 9.0%. However, the rebound is still being bolstered by extremely expansive monetary policies. The measures that some countries have introduced to consolidate national budgets may do harm to the economy. In addition, the swelling debt crisis in the euro zone bears risks. As a result, economic uplift may lose momentum again in the second half of the year.

In the course of 2010, the Japanese economy will continue to benefit from the recovery of the global economy. It is conceivable that exports will rise considerably, thereby driving strong GDP growth (IMF: 2.4%; Postbank Research: 3.3%). In China, economic growth in 2010 may almost reach the record levels of past years (IMF: 10.5%).

There are signs that the US economy will continue to rebound in the second half of the year. Solid GDP growth is predicted for the year as a whole (IMF: 3.3%; Postbank Research: 2.8%).

The economy in the euro zone will recover in 2010, stimulated by exports. However, as recovery will be curbed by structural weaknesses and fiscal consolidation measures, overall growth will be limited (IMF: 1.0%, Postbank Research: 1.2%). 

The global upturn is proving to be the driver of the German economy in 2010. Exports will rise sharply as a result. However, private consumption is not expected to provide any stimulus. On the contrary, it could even drop due to the end of the government’s environmental rebate programme for trading in used cars in the previous year. Nonetheless, GDP growth should be markedly higher in Germany than in the rest of the euro zone (IMF: 1.4%, Postbank Research: 1.9%).