Report on expected developments

Global upswing remains stable beside moderate growth

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecasts for 2010: it now anticipates global economic output to rise by 4.8% and global trade by 11.4%. The forecast assumes that growth will be markedly lower in the second half of 2010 than in the first half of the year. Based on this assumption, the IMF estimates that global GDP and global trade will expand at a slower pace in 2011. The waning fiscal impulses and the persistent uncertainty in the financial markets pose particular risks for the global economy.

Over the course of the year, the Japanese economy has benefited from the recovery of the global economy. GDP will probably grow strongly as a result of the huge rise in exports (IMF: 2.8%; Postbank research: 3.0%). The strong impetus from exports is likely to fade, resulting in noticeably lower growth rates in 2011 (IMF: 1.5%; Postbank Research: 1.7%). There are signs that China will again record robust growth for 2010 (IMF: 10.5%) but a slight loss of momentum in 2011 (IMF: 9.6% growth).

The United States is likely to register solid GDP growth in 2010 thanks to a good start to the year (IMF: 2.7%; Postbank Research: 2.8%). The US economy is expected to further recover in 2011, albeit at a slower pace than this year (IMF: 2.3%; Postbank Research: 2.1%).

The economy in the euro zone will recover in 2010, driven by impulses from global demand. However, as economic output will merely stagnate or even fall again in some debt-ridden countries, overall GDP growth will be moderate (IMF: 1.7%, Postbank Research: 1.7%). In 2011, economic growth is likely to be curbed again by structural weaknesses and fiscal consolidation. GDP growth is expected to contract slightly (IMF: 1.5%; Postbank Research: 1.3%).

The global upturn is proving to be the driver of the German economy in 2010. Exports will rise at an exceptionally sharp rate. Domestic demand is also picking up considerably; investments in machinery and equipment, in particular, are rising strongly. By contrast, private consumption is not yet expected to provide any stimulus. Nonetheless, GDP growth should be far higher in Germany than in the rest of the euro zone (IMF: 3.3%, Postbank Research: 3.5%). Growth in Germany is also projected to remain robust in 2011 in comparison with the rest of Europe (IMF: 2.0%; Postbank Research: 2.0%).