Report on expected developments

Global upturn with risks

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicting an increase of 4.2% in global economic output in 2010. For global trade, the IMF is forecasting growth of 7.0%. However, the rebound is still being bolstered by extremely expansive monetary policies and extensive government initiatives. This entails the risk of economic momentum falling back again later in the year.

In the United States, the conditions supporting a revival of the economy over the course of the year have improved. Solid GDP growth is predicted for the year as a whole (IMF: 3.1%; Postbank Research: 2.8%).

In Japan, foreign trade is expected to provide strong growth stimulus and GDP should rise markedly (IMF: 1.9%; Postbank Research: 2.0%). In China, growth will accelerate sharply in 2010 and nearly reach the record levels of past years (IMF: 10.0%).

The euro zone economy is expected to recover in 2010, although growth will remain subdued (ECB: 0.8%; Postbank Research: 1.4%). Exports and warehousing cycles should help to stimulate the economy.

The export-based German economy is likely to benefit from the global upturn. However, private consumption is not expected to contribute to growth. In fact, private consumption could drop as a reaction to the environmental rebate paid by the government last year for trading in used cars (Abwrackprämie). Nonetheless, GDP growth should be higher in Germany than in the rest of the euro zone (IMF: 1.2%, Postbank Research: 1.9%).